Flour Mills of Nigeria Plc. | Revision to Estimates

We revise 2018 forecasts for FLOURMILL following H1, wherein EBITDA and net profit were impacted by strong FX-linked net operating gains and double-digit revenue growth, which more than offset both weaker y/y gross margin and higher finance costs. While we look for relatively (to H1-18) weaker earnings in H2-18, we expect they would be stronger compared to H2-17.

Overall, we raise our EBITDA and net profit forecasts by 10% and 72% respectively for 2018F. Upward revision to estimates was conservative (flattish and 2% respectively) for 2019-2020F. On net, we raise our TP for the stock by 35% to NGN38.89 and maintain HOLD rating.

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